The recent finding from the survey by the Power and Participation Research Center (PPRC) that over one in four people in Bangladesh now live in poverty, a sharp increase from just a few years ago, reported by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), should serve as a sobering alarm bell. This is not simply a statistical correction. This represents a shift in narrative and challenges us to rethink our understanding of the country’s development success story. For years, Bangladesh was considered a “poster boy” for economic growth, a country steadily moving up the ladder of advancement. But this growth apparently was on unstable footing, as is now being revealed by a confluence of crises. The question we must confront is not simply why poverty is reversing, but why the earlier gains proved so vulnerable in the first place.
The dramatic rise in poverty across Bangladesh is not merely a number—it is a national reckoning. To understand the current predicament, we have to look back at the data that shaped our previous optimism. The official BBS figures for 2022, which showed a much lower poverty rate, were always somewhat puzzling. That survey was conducted in 2021, a period when the economic scars of the COVID-19 pandemic were still raw and the recovery was far from complete. That is, the point in time when the data were collected mattered. Despite the resilience suggested by the BBS’s official figures, other research organizations like SANEM, BIGD, and PPRC were conducting parallel surveys during 2020–2021, which told a vastly different story – one of a sharp rise in poverty. This discrepancy means that the official snapshot of life in 2021 may have grossly underestimated the depth of economic distress households were living through. What this implies is that the foundation of our poverty reduction narrative was perhaps weaker than we assumed, making the recent reversal less of a sudden shock and more of a delayed acknowledgment of underlying weaknesses.
So, what are these fundamental weaknesses? The core of the issue lies in the nature of our structural transformation and the pattern of economic growth. For a long time, we have been experiencing what can accurately be described as “jobless growth.” The economy was expanding, but this expansion did not translate into sufficient, high-quality employment opportunities. The connection between a rising GDP and falling poverty was also weak, a phenomenon economists call low elasticity of poverty reduction. Put simply, the growth was not inclusive. This means that the benefits of growth were concentrated, leading to rising inequality – a condition that global experience consistently shows countries with high inequality rarely achieve success in reducing poverty.
This exclusion is starkly visible in our most dynamic sector, ready-made garments. It is a profound puzzle that workers in this multi-billion-dollar export industry are often paid a minimum wage that falls below the poverty line income. They are the engine of our growth, yet they’re not reaping their fair share of that growth. They struggle to maintain a basic standard of living. This reveals a critical failure. The kind of private investment we have encouraged has not been in the form of dignified, well-paying jobs. It has instead deepened a cycle of low wages and high vulnerability.
From 2022 to 2025, the economy suffered from lingering COVID-19, global supply shocks, and prolonged inflation, reflecting a failure in proper macroeconomic management. Many countries faced supply-side shocks, yet Bangladesh experienced prolonged inflation, which is still prevalent in the economy. Even though the inflation rate has declined slightly compared to that period, it remains very high. This has also contributed to poverty reversal in the proposition we are discussing now. Compounding the challenges is a pressing concern over stagnant private sector investment over the past year, as investor confidence remains low amid ongoing political and economic uncertainties, which have failed to provide a solution for job creation.
The results are predictable and dire when the price of food soars at the same time incomes stagnate or decline, as PPRC data reveals is happening to urban households. A staggering 55% of a family’s monthly expenses now go solely to food, leaving little for health, education, or savings. From this perspective, poverty is not just about income; it’s about being perpetually one health crisis away from financial ruin. And with Bangladesh having one of the highest rates of out-of-pocket health expenditure in the world, that crisis is a constant threat to millions.
The July 2024 uprising and the subsequent interim government have brought a mix of cautious optimism and deep-seated anxiety. We are seeing improvements in some economic indicators, like an increase in remittances and exports. However, we must be cautious in interpreting these macro-level improvements. We can draw a similar hypothesis of a macro-micro mismatch as we observed during the pandemic. When informal channels for remittances are blocked due to political unrest or anti-corruption drives, more money may flow through formal banking channels, making the national figures look positive. But at the household level, the total amount received might actually be less. The crucial question is whether this formally recorded remittance is truly reaching families in a way that alleviates poverty, or if it is merely a statistical illusion.
The recent voices of young people tell a worrying story. A survey of 2,000 youth by SNAEM in May 2025 reveals a deep-seated frustration with the path from education to employment. They see a landscape of insufficient jobs, but the problem is more fundamental. They describe a faulty recruitment system where applications go unanswered and an education system that fails to prepare them for well-paid work. This is compounded by a widespread sense of decaying institutions and persistent corruption. We’ve discussed this erosion for years. The immediate need is for concrete reforms, but the larger, unsettling question is whether any government, interim or the forthcoming elected, has the sustained will to truly fix these broken systems. The youth’s anxiety is a direct reflection of this profound institutional distrust.
The story of poverty reversal in Bangladesh is a complex one, but it has a simple moral at the end. Growth that leaves people behind is fundamentally fragile; stability that breeds injustice is ultimately wobbly, and data that does not reflect reality is ultimately unsustainable. The PPRC numbers are a timely reminder that true development is measured not by the wealth of a few, but by the resilience and well-being of many. Without changing our basics, we can’t alleviate poverty in Bangladesh.
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